Oil Gains a Second Day on Storm, China Stimulus Outlook - Businessweek

Oil rose for a second day as crude production remained shut in the Gulf of Mexico because of Tropical Storm Debby and a report signaled that China, the world’s second-biggest oil user, may stimulate its economy.
Futures gained as much as 1.2 percent after rising 2 percent on June 22. Companies including ConocoPhillips (COP) (COP) and BP Plc (BP/) shut about 23 percent of output in the Gulf as Debby approached, according to the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. The storm shifted away from offshore energy installations yesterday, a National Hurricane Center advisory showed. China’s central bank may take measures to boost liquidity and lending, China Securities Journal reported today.
“We have a more positive outlook on sentiment,” said Jonathan Barratt, chief executive officer of Barratt’s Bulletin, a commodity-markets newsletter in Sydney, who forecasts that New York crude will trade between $77.50 and $80.50 a barrel in the short term. “The important thing is that it’s bounced off recent lows. If we close back above about $80.50, after going below that psychological level, you’ve got to be more bullish.”
Oil for August delivery rose as much as 92 cents and was up 46 cents at $80.22 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:21 p.m. Singapore time. The contract increased $1.56 to $79.76 on June 22. Prices are 19 percent lower this year and have fallen 22 percent this quarter, the biggest decline since the final three months of 2008.
Brent oil for August settlement gained 37 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $91.35 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark’s premium to West Texas Intermediate was at $11.13, from $11.22 on June 22.
The Gulf of Mexico is home to 29 percent of U.S. oil output and 40 percent of refining capacity. Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) evacuated 360 people and shut down production at the Auger and Enchilada/Salsa platforms, while BP, ConocoPhillips and Marathon all completed shut-ins. In Louisiana, Governor Bobby Jindal declared a state of emergency.
Debby will make landfall in western Florida today, according to AccuWeather Inc. The storm is stationary about 200 miles (320 kilometers) east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River with top winds at 60 miles per hour, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at 11 p.m. New York time yesterday.
China’s central bank may cut the reserve-requirement ratio for lenders “soon” and use reverse repurchase agreements to alleviate a possible capital shortage in July, China Securities Journal reported, citing unidentified analysts and people in the market.
Hedge funds reduced bullish oil bets to a 19-month low in the seven days ended June 19, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders report on June 22. Money managers, including funds, commodity pools and commodity trading advisers, cut wagers for a seventh week, paring futures and options combined by 5.9 percent to 122,815, the lowest level since Oct. 1, 2010.
To contact the reporters on this story: Ramsey Al-Rikabi in Singapore at [email protected]; Ben Sharples in Melbourne at [email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski at [email protected]

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