>>> good friday morning. i'm chris jansing . right now the president is on hiss way to florida . this afternoon he'll give a speech that could be critical to his re-election because he'll be addressing a conference of latino leaders in the battleground state of florida . mitt romney addressed that same group yesterday solve softening his tone on illegal illinois gration. he left out a phrase he's used in the pass, self-deport. but he again didn't get specific responding to president obama 's plan to stop deporting many young illegal immigrants .
>> some people have asked if i will let stand the president's executive order . the answer is that i will put in place my own long-term solution that will replace and supersede the president's temporary measure.
>> well, a new poll shows the president has a big lead along hispanics among the battleground states . hispanics supported him 2 to 1 in 2008 and he's hoping to shore up that support again today. joining me now is the anchor and managing editor of hdnet's dan rather reports and "time" magazine's correspondent michael shearer. mitt romney 's argument really is that the president is going to take your vote for granted and you have to have -- and do you have tn alternative, me. do you think he made his case, dan ?
>> no. not yesterday. he nibbled around the edges yesterday, changed his position ever so slightly. i think it's important to understand what this is really about is four states, florida , colorado, nevada, and virginia. those are places where even a little nudge of the hispanic vote needle in the direction of mitt romney can make a difference. he doesn't expect to get the majority of the hispanic vote. his game is to try to decrease the wide majority by which obama wins and particularly in those four states.
>> is that all it takes? when we're talking about nibbling around the edges in some of these states, and you look at the polls right now, and it's incredibly tight a point or two among the hispanic vote could make a difference?
>> absolutely. five or ten point swing in the hispanic vote is a point or two in the final vote. i think romney 's problem is he's right, his advisers are right, that hispanics care about a lot more issues than immigration . the economy is a big issue. traditionally issues of immigration and respect for the community and welcoming in the community are sort of barriers to entry for republicans, and romney is struggling to overcome that because he's not willing to take a position and you can hear that. the slip you just played, it short of almost comically says people have asked me this question and the earn is i'm not going to tell you the answer but i'll have some long-term answer i will present at a later point.
>> yeah. boy, did debbie wasserman schultz jump on that. let me play you a little clip of what she said after romney 's speech.
>> mitt romney was about as vague as he could be. there was no specific proposal, no clear path so the 12 million undocumented immigrants in this country would know under a romney presidency what their future would have hold.
>> do you think, michael , she's previewing what we'll hear from the president?
>> absolutely. the president will be very specific as a way of creating contrast. part of the president's re- election campaign premise is that we will get down in the weeds on policy because on a lot of these policies our policies, the democratic policies, actually poll better than the republican policies. that i think is what you will see again here. i wouldn't be surprised if he actually takes a direct jab at mitt romney 's appearance yesterday to highlight that difference because they really do want to drive that home among these voters.
>> it's also been suggested, dan , that he has to kind of explain what has happened over the last 3 1/2 years because he hasn't made good on a lot of the promise. he talked about the dream act four years ago, he talked about comprehensive immigration reform .
>> each of these candidates will on certain occasions and certain occasions engage on this. what governor romney is doing is the old duck and dodge and the political side shuffle. that's what you will see here. you will see president obama do it sometimes. i also would not be surprised to see the president take a direct jab at him today pointing out, listen, he's just ducking and dodging. he's not dealing with the core issue.
>> dan and michael , stand by. i want to bring in former new mexico governor bill rched soiichardson.
>> nice to be with you, chris.
>> i should explain to people who say, wow, it looks like he's in paris, he is actually in paris. mitt romney talked more about the economy than immigration yesterday, asking the question, are you better off than you were four years ago essentially. if jobs are the number one issue, we see it in polls across the country and we see it in polls among the latino community, is that the way to actually woo latino voters? could he move a point or two in states in the southwest, in places like florida , virginia, with that kind of message?
>> well, i think the speech that governor romney gave was disappointing because he's at about 25% of the latino vote nation nationally. he's going to need over 35% to be competitive and possibly get elected. i don't see how he can make that ground. he's had a very harsh position on immigration . what he simply said at the speech was he changed his style, substance, was more positive on words, but on deeds he fell far short. he still claims he's going to veto the dream act , which gives a path of citizenship to those who served in the military, those students. he's not for comprehensive immigration that legalizes the 12 million. he has refused to take a position on the deportation of the almost 1 million children. so on substance it's very hard for him to change the substance after a primary where each of the republican candidates were competing on who is harsher on immigration . he's also endorsed the arizona act which basicallylatinos. i think latinos will decide this election, because if you look at states like california, nevada, florida , new mexico, arizona, the latino vote is key there, and i don't see how he made much ground today, and so in a way i'm encouraged because i'm a strong supporter of the president and i think the latino will be a margin of victory substantially for the president and in a close race it's going to make a difference.
>> governor, when i make the argue mentsz thyou just made to republicans, they say latinos are not monolithic. could be critical in florida , but also, again, they point to the polls that show the number one issue is the economy. the overall unemployment rate for latinos is about 11%, far above the national average. does the president need to make very specific recommendations and really drive home to the latino community the economy?
>> yes. there's no question about it. for latinos , the most important issue is jobs, employment, and education. i think the president has a good record there. yeah, the 11% unemployment, this is a national problem, but the president does have a number of issues relating to latinos that lahti thoughs appeal to, education. i mentioned the dream act . i mentioned, too, the number of latinos he's appointed in his cabinet, judges throughout the administration. the fact he has tried to get comprehensive immigration but it's been republican filibusters in the congress that have stopped him. so, again, governor romney obviously wants to dodge the hot issues that affect latinos , immigration , education, the dream act , and focus on jobs and economic issues. tactically that makes sense, but i don't think latinos are going to buy that. they're a sophisticated group of voters. yes, there are some differences, but 70% of the latino vote is mexican-american that have that specific immigration problem . the cuban, south american , puerto rican vote, yeah, hispanics are not monolithic, but 65%, 35% has been the traditional amount that those that are elected president, democrats, have gotten in the past, and romney 's at about 22% with very harsh, extremist positions. i don't even think he's going to get to 25% but we'll see. you know, this is not a monolithic vote. it's a young vote. it's a vote that wants to see some results, and they at least see the president as making an honest effort.
>> well, john mccain has said he thinks that to win romney has to get 31%, at least the same amount he got. so it's going to be interesting to follow that. thank you so much. it's always great to see you, governor richardson , enjoy france. we wish we were there with you.
>> i'm working, i'm working. i'm not -- thank you. no, i'm giving a speech here. i'm not on vacation, but thank you.
>> not a bad place to have you work. thank you so much, governor. there's another part to this, michael and dan , which has to do with the big headline in politico today, and they're talking about how the left is going to spend more money, more time, more effort than they ever have before on voter i.d. laws, and they're very concerned about this. they think in many of those same states we just talked about, dan , that this could also be part of the key that could make a difference to winning or losing a state. are you surprised that the left is putting so much time, attention, and money into this?
>> no, i'm not surprised at all because they realize how important it can be and they're fighting from behind, particularly in a state such as florida . we talk about the hispanic vote and the overall independent vote, but this may be key in a close election , and rye now those who seek to limit the number of people who street through i.d. clearly have the upper hand. you talk about spending money, remember that they on the right, if you want to call it that, on the republican side , partly thanks to this most recent supreme court decision, they have a bottomless pocket to spend, so it's advantage for them and it could be a decisive advantage.
>> one of the interesting things is that there are a lot of people, and i've been hearing this increasingly, michael , who think in the end for all the money that's going to be spend on ads and i think the last number we got was $1.25 billion just on the republican side for super pacs, they're going to spend that on advertising, but there are a lot of people who think in the end this is going to end up being an old-fashioned ground game kind of operation and it will matter whether or no the unions go in. where do you see this fitting into the big picture .
>> what you're describe something two different strategies that are being taken by the different parties. the republicans are seeing this as a wave election year. they think the economy will help drive romney into office on the back of like you said probably something like $1 billion in television advertising . democrats are playing small ball . they're going after specific constituency groups, huge voter registration drives, going door to door , doing grassroots, a lot of microtargeting to try to get specific voters out that other -- that the romney campai have the technology right now to target. and the bet -- we don't know how it's going to play out. if it is a close race, you give the advantage then to obama and the democrats. if romney is right that the economy is going to continue to bubble and even start to boil as an issue going into the fall, then that one or two or three-point margin you can buy with these small ball efforts may not matter and romney may be able to win walking away.
>> it is fascinating to look at the polls though, dan , and see, we talked about how divided we are as a country but voters are very divided. they're divided in support by sex, by education, by race. you can go on and on and on. you look at the national polls. you look at the battleground polls and you can see that very specific chunks of the electorate favor one candidate or the other. is this going to be a lot about firing up the base or are they going to have to pull more in from the other side?
>> i think it's mostly about firing up your base at this stage. remember, we're in the summer, and that's advantage republican because much of the republican base, they may or may not like mitt romney as a person but they hate obama , they really have great distaste for him, and that's advantage for them, whereas on president obama 's side, much of his own base is disappointed. they will street for him but do they have the fire? back to the ground game/air game, i'm thinking the best grund game in politics or war aren't win without a very good air game. i think it's a good game that ground game can make a difference. it can make a difference only if it has a good air game. for example, nixon versus humphrey in 1968 . humphrey and the democrats had the best ground game. president nixon had enough of a ground game that with an overwhelming air game he won.
>> unbelievable. fascinating stuff always. dan rather , we love having you here. people should pick up your book. michael scherrer, great